Predictions for FM Auction Phase 3

FM auctions for over 200 cities are starting tomorrow. Since 45 of 135 auctions failed the last time round, I tried to take a crack at finding which auctions will fail this time. This blog post is about my predictions for the second round of Phase 3 of this auction. Let’s see what happens when the actual auction data rolls in.

The cities least likely to get auctioned according to my model: Alappuzha, Eroda, Salem, Vellore, Malegaon, Latur, Bijapur, Bellary, Barddhaman, Baharampur, English Bazar, Abohar, Thanjavur, Dindigul, Kanhagad, Karaikkudi, Karur, Neyveli, Pudukkottai, Rajapalayam, Tiruvannamalai, Bharuch, Junagadh, Mehsana and Yavatmal. These cities have a lower ‘ratio’ because the model deems the reserve prices of these cities to be too exorbitant.

The cities most likely to get auctioned according to my model: Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Ujjain, Ambala, Tinsukia, Nellore, Dhanbad, Siwan and Ludhiana. These cities have a higher ‘ratio’ because their reserve price is quite reasonable compared to the prices they’re expected to sell at.

I have built this model based on the ‘Category’, Domino’s pizza outlets, Cafe Coffee Day stores and Hero MotoCorp dealerships in each of these cities – a proxy for the paying capacity of consumers in that city.

The recommended bid is the value (in lakhs of rupees) that a company should want to start bidding at, and Max Bid is where the company should stop bidding. The last column indicates the chance of success of the auction.

Take Abohar for example. The reserve price is a good way away from the Maximum bid for its frequency – an indicator that the auction will likely succeed. Now, do the same for Alappuzha. The Reserve price is at the heels of the Maximum bid price. This is an indicator that the auction will likely fail.

These are my predictions for the second round of the Phase 3 FM auctions:

City	Reco Bid (in lakhs)	Max Bid (in lakhs)	Reserve Price (in lakhs)	Probability of auction success
Abohar	12	677	135	0.81
Achalpur	50	835	124	0.91
Adilabad	21	748	110	0.88
Adoni	50	835	110	0.92
Alappuzha (Alleppey)	141	480	423	0.17
Alipurduar	50	835	110	0.92
Alwal	50	835	110	0.92
Alwar	125	792	214	0.87
Ambala	292	992	123	1.24
Amravati	292	577	310	0.94
Anantpur	192	921	110	1.11
Arrah	12	677	39	0.96
Azamgarh	192	921	58	1.18
Baharampur	21	748	214	0.74
Bahraich	21	748	58	0.95
Baleshwar	21	748	58	0.95
Ballia	21	748	58	0.95
Balurghat	21	748	110	0.88
Bands	21	748	58	0.95
Bangaon	50	835	110	0.92
Bankura	21	748	110	0.88
Barddhaman	12	677	214	0.70
Baripada	21	748	58	0.95
Barshi	21	748	124	0.86
Basti	21	748	58	0.95
Beawar	21	748	110	0.88
Begusarai	12	677	39	0.96
Belgaum	279	565	268	1.04
Bellary	154	452	268	0.62
Bettiah	21	748	39	0.98
Bhadurgarh	12	677	123	0.83
Bhagalpur	154	452	105	1.16
Bharatpur	192	921	110	1.11
Bharuch	12	677	124	0.83
Bhatinda	234	926	135	1.14
Bhavnagar	268	553	310	0.85
Bheemavaram	21	748	110	0.88
Bhilwara	125	792	214	0.87
Bhiwani	12	677	123	0.83
Bidar	21	748	99	0.89
Bihar Shareef	21	748	39	0.98
Bijapur	12	677	268	0.61
Bokaro Steel City	12	677	39	0.96
Botad	39	760	124	0.88
Brahmapur	125	792	130	0.99
Budaun	21	748	58	0.95
Burhanapur	21	748	66	0.94
Chapra	21	748	39	0.98
Chhattarpur	21	748	66	0.94
Chhindwara	12	677	66	0.92
Chikmagalur	24	727	99	0.89
Chirala	21	748	110	0.88
Chitradurga	21	748	99	0.89
Chittoor	41	745	110	0.90
Churu	21	748	110	0.88
Coonoor	39	760	150	0.85
Cuddapah	12	677	110	0.85
Daman	21	684	124	0.84
Damoh	21	748	66	0.94
Darbhanga	12	677	39	0.96
Darjiling	41	702	110	0.90
Dehradun	446	741	448	0.99
Deoghar	21	748	39	0.98
Deoria	21	748	58	0.95
Devengeri	268	553	268	1.00
Dhanbad	690	1181	580	1.22
Dharamavaram	50	835	110	0.92
Dibrugarh	44	731	25	1.03
Dimapur	21	748	25	1.00
Dingdigul	21	748	150	0.82
Dohad	21	748	124	0.86
Durg-Bhillainagar	12	677	42	0.95
Eluru	21	748	110	0.88
English Bazar (Maldah)	21	748	214	0.74
Erode	268	553	423	0.46
Etah	21	748	58	0.95
Etawah	21	748	58	0.95
Faizabad/Ayodhya	21	748	58	0.95
Farrukhabad cum Fatehgarh	21	748	58	0.95
Fatehpur	21	748	58	0.95
Gadag Betigeri	50	835	99	0.94
Ganganagar	12	677	110	0.85
Gaya	154	452	105	1.16
Ghazipur	21	748	58	0.95
Giridih	21	748	39	0.98
Godhra	21	748	124	0.86
Gonda	21	748	58	0.95
Gondiya	21	748	124	0.86
Guna	21	748	66	0.94
Guntakal	50	835	110	0.92
Haldwani-cum Kathgodam	44	731	150	0.85
Hanumangarh	50	835	110	0.92
Hardoi	192	921	58	1.18
Hardwar	79	766	150	0.90
Hassan	21	748	99	0.89
Hazaribag	12	677	39	0.96
Hindupur	50	835	110	0.92
Hoshiarpur	68	756	135	0.90
Hospet	21	748	99	0.89
Hubli-Dharwad	314	601	268	1.16
Imphal	21	748	67	0.94
Itarsi	50	835	66	0.98
Jagdalpur	21	748	42	0.97
Jamnagar	268	553	310	0.85
Jaunpur	192	921	58	1.18
Jetpur Navagadh	50	835	124	0.91
Jhunjhunun	21	748	110	0.88
Jind	21	748	123	0.86
Jorhat	12	677	25	0.98
Junagadh	12	677	124	0.83
Kaithai	12	677	123	0.83
Kakinada	268	553	214	1.19
Kanhangad (Kasargod)	21	748	150	0.82
Karaikkudi	21	748	150	0.82
Karimnagar	192	921	110	1.11
Karur	21	748	150	0.82
Kavarati	50	835	5	1.06
Khammam	21	748	110	0.88
Khandwa	12	677	66	0.92
Kharagpur	44	731	110	0.90
Khargone	21	748	66	0.94
Kohima	50	835	25	1.03
Kolar	59	763	99	0.94
Korba	125	792	42	1.12
Kothagudem	21	748	110	0.88
Krishnanagar	21	748	110	0.88
Kurnool	267	560	214	1.18
Lakhimpur	192	921	58	1.18
Lalitpur	21	748	58	0.95
Latur	12	677	310	0.55
Ludhiana	1091	1581	989	1.21
Machillpatnam	50	835	110	0.92
Madanapalle	50	835	110	0.92
Mahbubnagar	24	727	110	0.88
Mahesana	12	677	124	0.83
Mainpuri	21	748	58	0.95
Malegaon	141	480	310	0.50
Mancherial	21	748	110	0.88
Mandsaur	21	748	66	0.94
Mathura	175	867	58	1.17
Maunath Bhajan (Distt. Mau)	192	921	58	1.18
Mirzapur cum Vindhyachal	21	748	58	0.95
Moga	68	756	135	0.90
Moradabad	685	1235	576	1.20
Motihari	21	748	39	0.98
Munger	21	748	39	0.98
Murwara (Katni)	21	748	66	0.94
Muzaffarnagar	267	560	130	1.47
Nagaon (Nowgang)	21	748	25	1.00
Nagarcoil/Kanyakumari	192	921	150	1.06
Nalgonda	41	745	110	0.90
Nandyal	21	748	110	0.88
Neemuch	12	677	66	0.92
Nellore	279	565	214	1.23
Neyveli	21	748	150	0.82
Nizamabad	192	921	214	0.97
Ongole	21	748	110	0.88
Orai	21	748	58	0.95
Palakkad	125	792	150	0.96
Palanpur	21	748	124	0.86
Pali	21	748	110	0.88
Panipat	151	842	123	1.04
Patan	21	748	124	0.86
Pathankot	116	806	135	0.97
Porbandar	21	748	124	0.86
Portblair	21	748	25	1.00
Proddatur	21	748	110	0.88
Pudukkottai	21	748	150	0.82
Puri	44	731	58	0.98
Purnia	21	748	105	0.88
Puruliya	21	748	110	0.88
Rae Barelli	125	792	58	1.10
Raichur	21	748	99	0.89
Rajapalayam	21	748	150	0.82
Ramagundan	50	835	110	0.92
Raoganj	21	748	110	0.88
Ratlam	12	677	66	0.92
Rewa	12	677	66	0.92
Rewari	44	731	123	0.88
Rohtak	44	731	123	0.88
Sagar	154	452	140	1.05
Saharanpur	292	577	130	1.57
Saharsa	21	748	39	0.98
Salem	267	560	423	0.47
Sambalpur	12	677	58	0.93
Sasaram	21	748	39	0.98
Satna	12	677	66	0.92
Sawai Madhopur	21	748	110	0.88
Shahjahanpur	154	452	130	1.08
Shimoga	192	921	268	0.90
Shivpuri	21	748	66	0.94
Sikar	192	921	110	1.11
Silchar	12	677	25	0.98
Singrauli	50	835	66	0.98
Sirsa	12	677	123	0.83
Sitapur	192	921	58	1.18
Siwan	192	921	39	1.21
Sultanpur	192	921	58	1.18
Surendranagar Dudhrej	50	835	124	0.91
Thanesar	39	760	123	0.88
Thanjavar	24	727	150	0.82
Tinsukia	192	921	25	1.23
Tiruvannamlai	21	748	150	0.82
Tonk	21	748	110	0.88
Tumkur	199	893	99	1.14
Udupi	50	835	99	0.94
Ujjain	267	560	140	1.43
Vaniyambadi	50	835	150	0.87
Vellore	279	565	423	0.50
Veraval	21	748	124	0.86
Vidisha	21	748	66	0.94
Vizianagaram	12	677	110	0.85
Wardha	21	748	124	0.86
Yavatmal	12	677	124	0.83

A probability greater than 1 in the last column indicates a 100% chance of the frequency getting sold.

Some data about the reserve prices wasn’t available, so what follows is an FM prediction for certain cities in case they do go up for auction:

City	Reco Bid (in lakhs)	Max Bid (in lakhs)
Amritsar	1009	1503
Asansol	607	1109
Bhopal	1196	1689
Chennai	10842	12121
Coimbatore	1295	1802
Gangtok	41	702
Gulbarga	154	452
Gwalior	303	588
Indore	1359	1867
Jabalpur	760	1253
Jalandhar	705	996
Kannur	188	504
Kolkatta	9868	11389
Mangalor	539	827
Mysore	622	911
Pannaji	44	731
Pondicherry	410	699
Raipur	611	901
Rajamumdry	267	560
Rajgarh	50	835
Ranchi	637	956
Shimla	41	702
Siliguri	373	661
Tiruchy	279	565
Tirunelveli	154	452
Tirupati	154	452
Tiruvananthapuram	242	545
Trissur	448	745
Tuticorin	141	480
Vadodara	1253	1759
Vijayawada	784	1276
Visakhapatnam	760	1253
Wadhwan (Surendernagar)	21	748
Warangal	267	560

I’ll talk about how I built the models that went into this prediction, the data collection behind the variables I used, the conclusions I drew from this model and how this model scales up to the actual auction in the next few blog posts. I’ll also talk about how I constructed the ratio that judges whether a frequency is fairly priced or not. Stay tuned.